WINNERS AND LOSERS IN SYRIA’S NEW REALITY - Along with Assad, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah are the clear losers

By: Joseph Puder

December 11, 2024

After more than 54 years in power the Assad family rule over Syria is over. The oppressive dictatorship of Bashar Assad, that killed hundreds of thousands of its own people, is now gone. It took less than two weeks for the rebels to accomplish this feat. The Assad family is certainly the greatest losers. They have not only lost their power base, but they have also may have lost their lucrative drug business.  The Assads were involved with Lebanese Hezbollah forces in the trafficking and selling of the “poor man’s cocaine,” called Captagon (the drug used by the October 7th killers). This drug trade that filled the Assad coffers with billions of dollars is now in jeopardy. Beyond their personal losses, is the question of the fate of the Syrian Alawi minority that has ruled Syria for more than half a century.

Perhaps the biggest geo-political loser is the regime of the Ayatollah Khamenei and the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Their Shiite Crescent is now being severed by the Syrian Sunni-Muslim majority that loathes the Shiites who took over their Syrian homeland and oppressed them. Land access to their most important proxy, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, is not only blocked but their weapons factories, on Syrian soil, are being taken over by the rebel forces. And, with Hezbollah and Hamas devastated by Israel in the past 14 months, Iran’s weak army will now have to face Israel on its own. Moreover, the pro-Iranian Shiite militias from Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Syria, operating close to the Israeli Golan Heights, had to withdraw to Iraq and beyond in the face of the Syrian Sunni rebels’ advances.

Russia is another geo-political loser. Its naval base in Tartus, on the Mediterranean Sea and, its airbase at Hmeimim, in northwestern Syria are now in jeopardy.  The Russians leased these bases for 49 years. Moscow is desperately looking for a possible alternative to the Mediterranean Sea bases in Libya.  Russia’s war with Ukraine has not gone as Putin anticipated. This coming February will mark the third anniversary of the Russian invasion and, its preoccupation with Ukraine has been a major reason for its inability to project its power in Syria, as it did in 2016.

Hezbollah is a major loser as a result of the ouster of the Assad regime.  The manufacturing and exporting of Captagon, in partnership with the Assad family, has been a cash cow for Hezbollah.  Crucially, however, Hezbollah has lost its armament storage capabilities in Syria, and a land bridge that Assad provided Iran to supply Hezbollah. Severely beaten militarily by Israel, a weakened Hezbollah and Iran, gave encouragement to the Syrian rebels to launch their attacks to bring down the Assad regime.

The winners are clearly the rebel groups who temporarily agreed to join forces and are being bolstered by Turkey’s Erdogan, who is arming and funding the Sunni rebels. Within a short time, however, the agendas of the various groups may collide and lead to a power struggle. The Syrian National Army (SNA), are a Turkish proxy doing the bidding of Erdogan and, are more focused on fighting the Kurds than the Assad regime.

Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the Islamist group led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani - his nom de guerre. His given name is Ahmed Hussein al-Shara.  Al Jolani previously led the Nusra Front, a branch of Al Qaida.  Although similarly supported by Erdogan’s Turkey, Jolani appears to be more independent.  He led the capture of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus and, in his recent speeches, seems to be signaling to the west that he has left the extremism of Al Qaeda behind him, and that he seeks to unify Syria with equality for all minorities, including religious freedom.  Whether these are empty words meant to appease America, or perhaps Donald Trump specifically, the incoming US president, only time will tell.  

Turkey is certainly a big winner. Erdogan has had a long-time feud with the Alawite Basher Assad. Erdogan, who likens himself as a modern Ottoman Sunni-Muslim Caliph and Sultan, despises the Alawites and Kurdish minorities.  In some ways, Turkey and Israel have a common interest in expelling the Iranian influence in Syria.  Unlike Iraq, Sunnis comprise the vast majority of the population of Syria, some 74%, but that includes Kurds as well as Arabs. Turkey will now seek to get rid of the approximately four million Syrian refugees and send them back to Syria. With his SNA proxy and HTS semi-proxy, Erdogan will focus on eliminating the Kurds along the border with Turkey and beyond. He will try to suppress any Kurdish attempt at self-determination, whether it is autonomy or outright independence.

Israel is certainly a winner. Cutting off Iranian access to the Mediterranean Sea and severing the land route from Iran to Lebanon, thus preventing Iran from arming Hezbollah and Hamas. For Israel, its certainly a vital Israeli interest. The removal of Iranian proxy militias from proximity to the Golan Heights is another positive step, albeit it is still unknown how Syria will emerge from the departure of Bashar Assad. It also deprives Hezbollah from establishing a second front against Israel next to the Golan Heights. In the meantime, Israel has established a buffer zone beyond the Syrian Hermon Mountain peak. To ensure that Jihadi terrorist elements among the rebel groups do not have access to chemical and biological weapons, Israel’s Airforce (IAF) has bombed those facilities throughout Syria. And, should chaos reign in Syria in the coming months, Israel might extend its territorial hold to Jabel Druze, and thus connect the Israeli Golan Druze area with the major Druze minority center in Syria. 

The US is another beneficiary of the new reality in Syria. The departure of the Russians from the scene, even temporarily, is positive, as is the ending of Iran’s influence and control in Syria. Both Israel and the US need to counter Erdogan’s ambitions in Syria and protect the Kurdish minority and the Kurdish Democratic Forces who were instrumental in defeating ISIS a decade ago.

Like Iraq, Syria is an unnatural unitary state, where Arabs, Kurds, Alawites, and Druze want to control their own domain and destiny.  The future of Syria, therefore, is unclear and, one realistic scenario may be the fragmentation of Syria into local “emirates.”