THE ISRAEL - HEZBOLLAH CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT - An Agreement that is Bound to Fail

By: Joseph Puder

Friday, December 6, 2024

Just days after the ceasefire agreement was signed, Hezbollah violated the agreement by having its personnel infiltrate into border villages south of Lebanon’s Litani River.

The ceasefire deal between Hezbollah, the Shiite-Lebanese terrorist organization and Israel, is essentially a coerced deal manufactured by the Biden administration. Washington has conditioned providing further shipments of arms to Israel and diplomatic coverage, on Israel signing the ceasefire agreement.

The ceasefire would put a stop to Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah’s military capabilities and, undoubtedly, allow the terror group to rearm and reassert its political will on the Lebanese people.

A little history is in order:

The Taif Agreement of 1989 which called on all of the Lebanese militias to disarm was ignored by Hezbollah, while the other militias, Christian, Druze, and Sunni-Muslim all complied.  There were no ramifications for non-compliance then, so why would Hezbollah comply now? The answer is rather clear.

Furthermore, Hezbollah did not adhere to the conditions of the 2006 UNSC Resolution 1701, which demanded they move north of the border area with Israel and, beyond the Litani River.  The resolution also called for Hezbollah to disarm and enable the Lebanese Armed Forces to control the border with Israel and serve as the only armed organization in Lebanon.  This resolution was ignored by Hezbollah and never enforced by the UN.

Clearly, only fools believe that Hezbollah would adhere to the current ceasefire conditions.  

The ceasefire deal calls on Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) to withdraw from Lebanon in 60 days, but it does not enable Israel to erect a buffer-zone on the Lebanese side of the border to prevent Hezbollah’s renewed shelling of Israeli communities in the Galilee.  The returning Lebanese evacuees from Southern Lebanese villages, adjacent to the border with Israel, will surely include Hezbollah fighters in the guise of civilians.  In the absence of Israeli forces, there will be no prevention.

It is clear that the Israeli residents of northern Israel, who fled their homes because of the deadly shelling by Hezbollah, will not want return to their homes. They sense that it is only a matter of time, perhaps six-months but, more likely much sooner, before Hezbollah is fully rearmed by the Islamic Republic of Iran and, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers will be in command of Hezbollah in place of those eliminated by Israel.

The enforcement mechanism in the deal relies on the same groups who failed to ensure compliance with previous deals: they include The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The LAF has been fully infiltrated by Hezbollah and many of its officers are Shiite loyalists of Hezbollah. Moreover, Hezbollah is still better armed and stronger than the LAF, despite having lost half of its rocket arsenal, many of its officers and rank-and-file soldiers.

The UNIFIL observers are lightly armed and are forbidden to engage in a firefight.  The moment hostilities resume, they will flee to safe areas. They proved it in the past and, will repeat it in the future.

The United States and France have taken on the responsibility of overseeing the fulfillment of the agreement. France is an unreliable enforcer, in general, and its current left-leaning government is hostile to Israel. The fear of offending their Muslim citizens will prevent France from taking action against Hezbollah’s violations. This situation is further compromised by the lame duck Biden administration that seeks to exit the White House with one foreign policy “achievement,” and will therefore have no interest in intervening. 

Prime Minister Netanyahu, in a recorded speech, cited the following advantages for signing on to the deal:  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops would have time to refresh and rearm; secondly Hezbollah would be disconnected from Hamas in Gaza, thus further isolating the Hamas terrorists. And lastly, Israel would intensify its focus on dealing with the snake’s head - Iran.

While those reasons are understandable, what is being overlooked is the problem America and the West have with winning wars, and imposing that stance on Israel. The West, including the US have shunned the idea of total victory. Hezbollah, on the other hand is already celebrating its “victory” by pointing to its very survival and being able to withstand Israel’s military campaign.

Voices within the Netanyahu government coalition are not satisfied with the deal, and the opposition is very critical. The litmus test is whether the displaced 60,000-80,000 Israeli residents of the Galilee, which borders Lebanon, will return to their homes.  The mayors of border communities response to the agreement does not offer much optimism. They complain that it is only a matter of time before Hezbollah resumes its rocket fire and drones and, they contend that the US will not enforce the deal because other priorities will take precedence.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has assured the Israelis that if Hezbollah violates the agreement, Israel has the right to enter Lebanon and respond. Israelis, however, are critical as they understand that the past is indicative of what is to come.

In a zoom interview the Interfaith Taskforce for America and Israel (ITAI) conducted with a Lebanese Christian activist in Beirut, Lebanon (name withheld for security reasons), the activist maintained that the agreement is actually with the Lebanese government.  The Chief-of-Staff of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), who hopes to become President of Lebanon, will need the support of pro-Hezbollah deputies and will, therefore, not act against any violations of the agreement.  The LAF is waiting for two-weeks before deploying along the border with Israel in order to allow Hezbollah fighters to join the LAF dressed in their uniforms. Similarly, Hezbollah fighters will be streaming south of the Litani River along in civilian garb.

All the while, the ineffectual UNIFIL forces will not be checking who is returning to their home villages, and the agreement has no mechanism to allow such intrusive verification.

There is considerable hope that this situation might be upended once Donald Trump enters the White House on January 20, 2025.  Although the incoming president is keen on achieving a peaceful Middle East, he is cognizant of Iran’s role in the sponsorship of terrorism, their attempts to assassinate him and, he has no particular “affection” for Hezbollah. The ceasefire agreement is therefore a tool for the Biden administration to proclaim a victory. For Israel, however, it is merely a respite.