ITAI’s Special Bulletin VII

ITAI’s Special Bulletin VII

By: Joseph Puder

October 30, 2023

The soul searching over the intelligence failures and the subsequent massacres of Israelis that occurred on October 7, 2023, must wait until the current war against Hamas is over.

The complacency of the Israeli intelligence and military elites and their habitual reliance on outdated “conceptions” is clearly at the root of the problem that led to one of the greatest disasters to befall the State of Israel. Those in authority held a similar conception 50 years ago - on the eve of the Yom Kippur War in October 1973.

The conception this time was that Hamas has been deterred and that Israel can therefore allow Gazans, in ever increasing numbers, to enter into Israel and work; thereby earning a living and easing the pressure on the Strip’s economy. The thinking was that by bettering the lives of Gaza’s Palestinian Arabs Hamas would become more responsible and become a political adversary rather than a military challenge.

Some in the Kiriya, where the top military brass confers on strategy, concluded that Hamas had been deterred because earlier this year Hamas chose to stay on the sidelines when its junior partner, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), attacked Israel from Judea and Samaria as well as more massively with rockets from Gaza. Apparently, Hamas had already planned a much larger attack on Israel directed by Iranian experts.

The Israeli top brass convinced themselves that Hamas’ military capacity was severely depleted after the Guardian of the Walls operation in May 2021. Hamas and PIJ fired indiscriminately 4,400 rockets at Israel, including Jerusalem, while 680 of these rockets misfired and fell within the Gaza Strip causing Palestinian casualties. The Iron Dome intercepted 90% of the rockets aimed at civilian targets.

In response, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck over 1,500 terror targets, including launch sites, command and control centers, and weapon storage sites. In addition, the IDF struck many kilometers of Hamas’ extensive tunnel system, and neutralized hundreds of Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror operatives. From the point of view of the IDF’s high command, the mission was successful in defending Israel, fighting terror, and ensuring the security of Israeli civilians.

In October 1973 much like in October 2023, Israel relied on a barrier. In 1973, it was the Bar-Lev line along the Suez Canal manned by a skeleton-sized troop of Golani soldiers in bunkers, while the armor brigades were 100 kilometers away and would rush in towards the Canal should the Egyptian army attempt to cross. The Air Force was ready to send its jets to destroy bridges and boats. But the Egyptians have learned their lessons; their infantry carried anti-tank missiles as well as SAM missiles (Surface-to-Air missiles).

In 2023 Israel also relied on the fence/wall barrier that sealed off Gaza. We depended on the sophisticated electronic systems that cost the Israeli taxpayer billions of shekels and, thus, we left very few troops along the Gaza border and moved the core of the brigades into Judea and Samaria to quell the anticipated terror there. When the kibbutzniks in the communities surrounding Gaza cried for help from the army, there were pitifully few to help them. Beautiful families, the salt-of-the-land, were rendered defenseless, and kibbutzim including Kfar Aza, Beeri, Nahal Oz and others were wiped out. Entire families were gruesomely murdered and 239 were kidnapped and brought to Gaza. The towns of Sderot and Ofakim were also devastated and many of its people murdered and kidnapped.

Saturday, October 7, 2023, is a day that will live on in infamy – a day when 1,400 Israelis were murdered and over 5,500 injured. The Jewish people suffered the highest toll of murder since the Holocaust.

But the nation of Israel is now united with a sense of purpose, energized with the slogan “United We Shall Triumph.” Thankfully, the IDF is a master improvisor and, just as we did in the Yom Kippur War where we turned the initial defeat into victory, we shall win this existential battle and restore the devastated towns and kibbutzim. The IDF will ultimately rebuild our deterrence by wiping out Hamas and PIJ military and political hold on Gaza.