ITAI’s Special Bulletin VI
ITAI’s Special Bulletin VI
By: Joseph Puder
October 24, 2023
"Conceptzia," the collective thinking of the Israeli intelligence establishment, led them to turn their attention elsewhere. As a result, Egypt has not been on Israel’s radar despite the fact that since the 2021 Guardian of the Wall operation Egypt has been the conduit for Hamas’ resupply of arms - especially rockets that were depleted in campaigns against Israel. Despite the peace treaty Israel has with Egypt, one which the Egyptians benefit economically, President Sisi’s long-term strategic aim is to weaken Israel. Egypt has maintained a blind eye policy on Hamas’ arms smuggling through the tunnels connecting Gaza with the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula, thus enabling Hamas to replenish its rocket arsenal. While the Israelis have known of the tunnels, they have destroyed what they could rather than cause a flare up with Egypt.
The humanitarian aid flowing to Gaza from the Egyptian Rafiah crossing is clearly “an accident waiting to happen!” There is no question that as $100 Million of aid passes through, Hamas very likely could be provided with much needed military hardware. It would be a fatal mistake to allow the entry of materials without Americans inspecting the content of the materials coming in. Hamas has already stolen the fuel intended for Gazan civilians escaping the bombing in northern Gaza. It is quite reasonable to assume that Hamas would steal whatever comes into Gaza.
Currently the Egyptian army has substantial arms stored in the Sinai - including enough fuel for six army divisions – which contravenes the 1979 peace treaty. In fact, Egypt has maintained three full army divisions in the Sinai and built multiple bridges over the Suez Canal in preparation for a future war, undoubtedly with Israel. For Israel to ignore that, would be another colossal political and intelligence failure.
Israel must stop holding on to conceptions that are no longer valid. While the Camp David Peace Accords signed in March 1979 held up for 44 years, the reality is that the Egyptian people and its media are hostile to Israel and Jews. If Egypt had free and open elections, it is more than likely that the Muslim Brotherhood candidates would win a majority. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi might be comfortable with the existing peace with Israel, but he is also fully aware of his people’s sentiments.
One day after the Nazi-like brutal murder of 1,400 Israelis in the communities surrounding Gaza, and the kidnapping of 222 Israeli babies, old men and women, and young girls that were raped, an Egyptian policeman shot and murdered two Israeli tourists in Alexandria, Egypt, while a crowd of Egyptian soldiers looked on and did nothing.
A survey conducted in 2019-2020 showed that 85% of Egyptians opposed diplomatic recognition of Israel, and anti-Israel incitement is prevalent in the Egyptian media.