ISRAEL MUST FREE ITSELF FROM DEPENDENCY ON U.S. - Complying with Washington’s interests’ often impacts Israel’s deterrence.
By: Joseph Puder
Friday, September 13, 2024
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been in an intense state of alert in recent weeks. Israel is anticipating a retaliatory attack from the Islamic Republic of Iran, and/or from its proxy Lebanese Hezbollah, allegedly in response to last month’s elimination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hezbollah’s Chief-of-Staff Fuad Shukr in Beirut. For Israel and Israelis this is an unacceptable situation. The 24/7 alert has taken a particular toll among the Air Force reservist pilots and ground crews, who must be away from their families and jobs. The overall Israeli economy, including the agricultural sector, has also suffered enormously. And, most critically, the war and the anxiety over the hostages continues to seriously impact the national morale and the psychological wellbeing of many in Israel.
As exhibited in previous situations, Israel would have launched a preventive strike against both Iran and Hezbollah, however, in consideration of the Biden-Harris administration’s demand that they avoid doing so for fear that an Israeli strike might trigger a wider regional war, they have refrained. The primary reason for Washington’s efforts to restrain Israel from acting is, first and foremost the upcoming US elections. The administration doesn’t want American personnel in the Middle East coming back in body bags. The US currently has 2,500 US soldiers in Iraq and 900 stationed in the northeast area of Syria. Iraqi Shiite militias, under Iranian guidance, have already deployed rockets in an attack on the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq’s Al-Anbar province, wounding several US troops. Similarly, Shiite militias in Syria mounted drone attacks on American bases in the country.
Secondarily, the US has been constraining Israel from a preventive strike against Iran for purely political purposes. Kamala Harris, as she assesses her run for the US presidency, understands that she must appease the pro-Hamas “progressive” wing of the Democrat Party, especially in Michigan, where the large Muslim community might abstain from giving the Democrat Party their vote/support. That position holds true for a number of other swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Insofar as the Biden-Harris administration is concerned, a regional war in the Middle East would work to the advantage of Russia and China. As the administration views it, attention on the Middle East is likely to divert attention from the war in Ukraine and enable Russia to become more aggressive. It might also encourage China to attack Taiwan. Moreover, arms that would go to Ukraine would have to be transferred to the Middle East. The question then is: Why hasn’t the administration pursued a cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia?
While Israel is fully prepared and capable of inflicting an effective preventive strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, such a strike might be somewhat more complicated against Iran due to the distance and size of the Islamic Republic. To deal with Iran, Israel requires the active participation of the US. It is apparent that the administration’s fear of a major war during an election season makes it equally unlikely that a Harris administration would participate or endorse a preventive attack on Iran.
Israel, in its current face-off with Hezbollah, is dealing with a different reality. Whereas, in 2006, it was Israel versus Hezbollah without the interference or participation of additional players, this time the radical-Shiite “axis of evil” is united and coordinated, and a full-scale engagement with Hezbollah is certain to involve Iran, the Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria and, help from both the Assad regime and the Houthis in Yemen. Israel, nonetheless, is currently being attacked from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, in addition to Iranian inspired terror groups in Judea and Samaria and Gaza.
In tying Israel’s hands and preventing it from launching a preventive attack on Iran and Hezbollah, the US is weakening Israel’s deterrence. Some would even argue that the Biden-Harris administration’s insistence on a cease-fire in Gaza, and limited Israeli actions against Hezbollah, is meant to stop Israel from achieving a victory.
An IDF operation inside Lebanon that knocks out their four or five power stations will put the Land of the Cedars in darkness. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will then have to deal with two fronts. The domestic front, in which he would have to quell the massive demonstration of over 70% of the Lebanese population that would compel him to come to some sort of an agreement with Israel. And, with the northern Galilee emptied of its Israeli population for almost a full year, due to Hezbollah’s rocket attacks, Israel cannot continue with the ping-pong exchanges with Hezbollah. The people of Israel demand a resolution that enables the evacuees to return to their homes, and that would require decisive action against Hezbollah.
The US Congress approved a $14.1 billion aid package for Israel earlier this year, but the Biden-Harris administration is using this “carrot” to force the Netanyahu government to comply with American interests in the region. The recent approval of $3.5 billion to be released to Israel is predicated on a hostage deal and ending the war in Gaza. As Israelis see it, ending the war in Gaza without the removal of Hamas from Gaza, translates into a victory for Hamas.
A significant number of Congressional Democrats are seeking to withhold arms shipments to Israel. It is meant to force the Jewish state to end the war in Gaza. This would leave Hamas in place and provide them the opportunity to reemerge once again as a threat to Israel’s civilian population. Israel mustn’t expose itself to such dictates. It must end its dependency on the US by becoming self-sufficient in arms production. The US-Israel alliance must be based on mutual respect regardless of the composition of the Israeli government. The US and Israel are intimate allies who share democratic and human values, but Israel must also recognize that President Biden is probably one of the last “Zionists” in his own words. The future Democrat Party doesn’t bode well for Israel, and hence, Israel must become self-reliant.