BIDEN’S WEAKNESS FACILITATES IRAN’S GAINS. Egypt might be next to have a rapprochement with Iran.
July 14, 2023
By: Joseph Puder
The Iranians have been skilled chess players and are seemingly defeating the plans the Americans and Israelis have laid out to isolate the radical, theocratic regime of the Ayatollahs of Iran. After neutralizing Saudi Arabia, its major rival in the Gulf, with the help of the Chinese in securing the rapprochement, it is focusing on the most populous Arab state – Egypt. Having already secured the non-participation in an anti-Iranian coalition by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt’s non-participation in the American conceived defensive alliance against Iran is now Tehran’s vital project. Let there be no mistake, there is no “love lost” between the Sunni-Arab States and the arrogant Iranian Shiites. The Arab Gulf states seem to have given up on the US as an effective protector of their interests. The mistrust of the Sunni-Muslim Arab states toward the Obama-Biden administrations has pushed them to look for alternative protectors. The Biden administration appears weak, and indecisive in facing the Ayatollahs of Iran. Obama went over their heads to strike a dangerous nuclear deal with Iran, and Biden is seeking to conclude an even more dangerous deal.
In the meantime, quiet mediation efforts between Egypt and Iran have been ongoing for months. Last May, media reports indicated that Egyptian-Iranian talks have taken place in Baghdad. Oman’s ruler, Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq, appeared to be the primary mediator who has traveled extensively between Cairo and Tehran. The relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The late Anwar Sadat, Egypt’s President at the time, provided refuge in Egypt for the deposed and ailing Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Khomeini and his cohorts in Iran demanded that Egypt turn him over, and when Sadat refused, diplomatic relations were cut off in 1980. The Iranians celebrated Sadat’s murder in 1981 and named a major street in Tehran for Sadat’s assassin Khalid al-Islambouli, which infuriated the Egyptians. There were also strategic considerations, including Egypt’s close relations with the US and concerns over Iran’s nefarious machinations in the Middle East region. Egypt had accused Iran of sending Hezbollah agents to subvert the Mubarak regime, and of seeking to spread Shiite-Islam among the predominate Sunni-Muslim Egyptians. In 2012, with ascent Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammad Morsi to the Egyptian presidency, diplomatic relations were restored after 30 years. In 2015, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi (who removed Morsi in 2013) stated that Egypt has no relations with Iran.
Recently however, it has been widely perceived in the Middle East that the US is gradually retreating from the region and reducing its commitments to its regional partners while shifting its attention and resources to the Indo-Pacific regional powers. As is the case with Saudi Arabia, many in Egypt have concluded that the country needs to diversify its international partners, including China and Russia. Like the Biden administration’s badgering the Saudis on human rights violations (Jamal Khashoggi’s murder), the Biden administration has held back some funds from Egypt due to accusations by congressional Democrats of human rights violations in Egypt. The US is providing Egypt annually with $1.3 billion (2022) in Foreign Aid. Both the Saudis and the Egyptians sense that China is the emerging “strong horse,” while Biden projects weakness and American declining power. With no particular cultural or political affinity for the US, Egypt is leaning toward neutrality in the global power struggle.
Iran approached the talks with Egypt in an effort to mitigate its relative isolation in the Arab world and undermine US and Israeli attempts to form a defensive anti-Iranian Arab front. Some have even ventured to call it a NATO-like Middle Eastern alliance. The aim was to thwart the Islamic Republic of Iran’s imperialistic ambitions and combat its terror sponsorship across the region and beyond. Iran is being helped by non-state Egyptian press articles welcoming the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and hoping that Egypt would follow Saudi Arabia’s example.
Egypt has received extensive economic and political support from Saudi Arabia and is somewhat beholden to Riyadh. Therefore, there might be the motivation on the part of President El-Sisi to join the Saudis. Until recently, however, Egypt was part of the Anti-Iranian Sunni camp, led by Saudi Arabia. Cairo linked rapprochement with Iran to a change in Tehran’s policies towards the Gulf states. Egypt has declared on several occasions that the security of the Gulf is part of Egypt’s national security. The Egyptians consider Iran’s support for the Houthis in Yemen not only as a threat to Saudi Arabia and the UAE but to Egypt itself. Iran, through the Houthis, threatened the shipping lanes in the Bab al-Mandeb strait in the south of the Red Sea and by extension the approaches to the Suez Canal, a vital element to the Egyptian economy.
What motivates Cairo to consider a rapprochement with Iran is the economic crisis in Egypt, partly due to the war in Ukraine. More importantly, however, are the geostrategic changes in the region... a declining American and European involvement on one hand and increasing power projection of China and Russia in the region on the other. Still, Iran seems to be far more eager for the restoration of relations than Egypt, at least outwardly. The official Egyptian government-controlled press was not praising a possible rapprochement with Iran as did the non-state press.
An Egyptian political analyst who wished to remain anonymous told The New Arab (June 1, 2023) that, “El Sisi didn’t follow the footsteps of his ally and benefactor – the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammad Bin Salman, at a time his state needed the help of the Gulf country and its neighbors the most amid an economic crisis.” This is indicative of the Egyptian government’s cautious approach to a rapprochement with Iran. Clearly, what suits Saudi Arabia does not necessarily suit Egypt. Another Intelligence source told The New Arab (May 18, 2023) that “communication between Cairo and Tehran has been ongoing on the intelligence level for years now… Such communication is aimed at facilitating trade and economic deals. But in a nutshell, relations have been hanging by a thread for decades now.”
Last May, Syria was re-admitted to the Arab League after an 11-year suspension, despite US public criticism of the move. This could be seen as part of a wider regional reconciliation effort over which the US has little control. Hence, if the ties between Egypt and Iran resume, it would once again expose the Biden administration’s diminishing power and influence on regional dynamics. The loss of American prestige and influence in the Middle East will impact mostly on Israel. The reintegration of Iran and Syria into the regional community would exacerbate Israel’s security concerns, and ultimately erode American position as a superpower. It would simultaneously increase Iran’s power and influence in the region and beyond.