ITAI’s Special Bulletin VIII
ITAI’s Special Bulletin VIII
By: Joseph Puder
Friday, November 3, 2023
While the Biden administration insists on Israel allowing humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip, Israel is not legally obligated to comply. International law does not compel nations that have been attacked to render help to the attacker. Moreover, Israel must condition such aid on information on the well-being of the kidnapped Israeli hostages held most likely in the tunnels underneath Gaza.
It is crucial that the Red Cross be permitted to pay a visit to the hostages and provide them with medicines since many of them are elderly and in declining health. There are also babies, and young children, as well as women that need personal hygiene items, along with adequate food and drink. Aid to the people of Gaza must be predicated on similar aid for the hostages who were brutally dragged out of their sleep, and from their homes. Their safety is at least as morally justified as the well-being of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, who cheered the Hamas killers who perpetrated the gruesome massacre of Israeli civilians.
The talk about a regional war or even worse, a Third World War is a bit hasty. Iran, the perpetrator of the current war between Hamas and Israel is not ready yet for a regional conflict with Tehran becoming a target. The Ayatollahs are waiting to acquire a nuclear bomb. According to Israeli sources, Iran is a year away from a bomb. American experts estimate that Iran is merely months away.
For the time being, Iran must be seen as the top of a waterfall. It is pouring metaphorically its water down the stream over to Hezbollah to do its fighting. Hezbollah is shifting the water to Hamas to do the blood work, and Hamas is sacrificing the people of Gaza for its malign purposes. Iran is fighting this war with Palestinians shedding their blood. Hamas is naturally a willing partner in Iran’s plan “to erase Israel off the map.”
Iran is making sure that its proxies harass Israel from several fronts. The Houthis in Yemen already complied by firing cruise missiles at Israel’s southern port of Eilat. The missiles were intercepted by Israel’s Arrow anti-missile system. Shiite proxies in Syria also fired rockets into Israel without causing damage to property or persons.
Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, is torn between his urge to destroy Israel and comply with Iran’s (its paymaster) demands, and the recognition that Israel might level Lebanon. He remembers the unanticipated results of his unprovoked attack on Israel in 2006 when his terrorists killed and kidnapped Israeli soldiers. Israel leveled southern Beirut and depleted much of the Hezbollah arsenal. Additionally, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati has warned Hezbollah not to involve Lebanon in the war against Israel.
President Biden, in a clear message to Iran, warned against spreading the current war between Hamas and Israel further. He famously said, “Don’t…Don’t…” But Iran apparently didn’t take his warning seriously, Iranian Shiite proxies in Iraq and Syria attacked American bases with missiles 28 times. The US reaction was mild, firing back at the source of the fire. If the US is to establish deterrence vis-à-vis Iran, it must convince the Iranians that the US would exercise the military option. This means that the two US aircraft carriers in the region deal with Hezbollah should it seek to open a second front.